General election murblings
Nov. 24th, 2014 01:38 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
I have been saying for some time that I really need to look at voting statistics for my borough in order to determine whether I need to vote for my (mostly competent, keeps trying to pick twitter fights with Julian Huppert) Labour MP Andrew Slaughter in order to avoid a Tory, or whether Andy's sufficiently safe that I can vote LD or Green instead depending on policies and candidates.
As it turns out, there isn't enough record to make a good call because the borough's only bloody existed since like 2010 (in its most recent incarnation; it previously existed 1885-1918 and 1983-1997, but I'm not poking at boundary maps hard enough to work out whether that's meaningful for my purposes). Anyway, it looks like Andy's sufficiently safe that I can vote according to my politics + desire for candidates without risking getting a bloody Conservative in; which means I will wait for Green & LD candidates to be announced and then make my mind up. (For all Andy annoys me he does mostly respond plausibly to letters and I approve of his interactions with the NHS, so.)
As it turns out, there isn't enough record to make a good call because the borough's only bloody existed since like 2010 (in its most recent incarnation; it previously existed 1885-1918 and 1983-1997, but I'm not poking at boundary maps hard enough to work out whether that's meaningful for my purposes). Anyway, it looks like Andy's sufficiently safe that I can vote according to my politics + desire for candidates without risking getting a bloody Conservative in; which means I will wait for Green & LD candidates to be announced and then make my mind up. (For all Andy annoys me he does mostly respond plausibly to letters and I approve of his interactions with the NHS, so.)
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-24 01:46 pm (UTC)~K.
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-24 04:27 pm (UTC)Last time out it was important to dump Labour who were turning us into a nanny state. Now it looks like the UK is becoming a police state (although the previous government weren't exactly blameless for that either) so it's necessary to work out who might stop that.
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 08:46 am (UTC)[1] Actually, I'm not sure that's even true any more.
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-24 04:37 pm (UTC)In this case, I think Slaughter is safe. He had a substantial majority at the last election, the worst for Labour in many decades, and both the Tories and (especially) the Lib Dems are now much less popular. That looks like a very safe Labour seat to me...
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 08:47 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 08:58 am (UTC)What I *really* hope is that we get an (entirely possible) situation where the Tories come first in votes but second in seats, Labour second in votes but second in seats, UKIP third in votes but with no seats at all, the SNP fourth in votes and seats, and the Lib Dems fifth in votes and third in seats, and end up with a Lib-Lab coalition.
In a situation like that, where we get a completely *stupid* result, electoral reform might be a possibility again...
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 09:13 am (UTC)(possibly you meant to say "Labour second in votes but first in seats"?
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 08:34 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-24 02:51 pm (UTC)I rather like the Greens really; except when they are trying to make CBG an exciting 4-way marginal. Oh for a sensible voting system to stop you having to decide between "OK, might win" and "brill, no chance".
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 10:30 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-24 05:47 pm (UTC)(S)
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-24 07:27 pm (UTC)I don't want to vote Labour, too much pandering to the Daily Mail vote and I just don't trust them, or Ed himself, on disability issues - they are, after all, the party who voluntarily got into bed with Unum and Atos to create the WCA (knowing exactly what was being said about Unum in the States), and they have pledged to keep it, if (allegedly) somewhat reformed.
Yet the current government has been a nightmare of ever-harsher attitudes towards disabled people, and people are dying regularly because of it - a friend has just suggested we need a Disability Day of Remembrance to focus attention on all those who have died because it is more convenient for society to look the other way. The Tories pledged to protect the most vulnerable, at the same time as explicitly targeting us for the worst of the cuts - one think-tank estimate says on average the most severely disabled people have faced cuts 19 times worse than non-disabled people. They even cut Access to Work, which actually made a 41% profit on every pound spent. The Tories are now floating the idea within DWP of cutting ESA (the benefit for disabled people who can't work)to 50p/wk more than JSA - £72/wk, about a £30/wk cut, for people with significantly higher living costs and mostly with no long term prospect of returning to the workforce. And the Lib Dems have happily held their coat while they did this, in stark counterpoint to everything they ever claimed to stand for, so there's no way I'm ever going to vote Lib Dem.
UKIP are worse, they seriously contemplated cutting all disability benefits to be equal to basic under-25 JSA (£57/wk), indeed their policies are so murky that may well still be their intention. Meanwhile their disability spokeswoman (who is at least disabled herself - not true in most parties) resigned from the Tories shortly ahead of her expulsion for campaigning that golliwogs aren't racist, and has told me on Twitter that Brussels was to blame for disability policies I know for a fact were decided on in Westminster deliberately to hamstring implementation of the actual EU policies. And on must stuff they're even worse!
There's an attraction to voting Green, but I only agree with limited parts of their policy base (as a defence professional I find their claim there is no viable threat to the UK ludicrous at best - which part of maritime nation don't they understand? - and they seem not to understand the time needed to rebuild lost capabilities in the face of resurgent threats). And there's little likelihood of them taking the local seat, so, regrettably, they're out unless I go for a pure protest vote.
What I need is a party that's economically and socially somewhere significantly to the left of Labour, while still retaining a defence and foreign policy I don't feel threatens the country - so essentially what I actually want is the Labour Party I grew up with, not the one we have now!
I'll almost certainly end up voting Labour, but not because of any actual desire to do so, purely because it's the choice that does the least harm.
And I do expect there to be harm :(
(ETA: I'm in Chatham and Aylesford, so with a Tory to unseat - Tracey Crouch had a 6,000 majority last time).
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-24 07:35 pm (UTC)I am SO FUCKING MAD at my country and its politics, but I really love our electoral system - both the compulsory voting and the preferential voting.
I'm going to go vote tomorrow (state election) and my calculations will take the form of who to vote first, who to vote next, who to vote last, and how to order the long tail of fundamentalist, libertarian, or white-supremacist parties just ahead of who to vote last.
(Sadfax: a lot of ordinary Australian voters - maybe even the majority - either do not understand how preferential voting works or don't know we have it. Civics: not a thing we do well.)
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 08:56 am (UTC)*looks up stats* eeeeek.
Turns out that in the last election Labour, SNP and Tory were all within 60 votes of one another here, in joint second place with about 10% each, behind a 62% LD behemoth.
OK, this is probably still a safe seat...
In that case I can.... er, try to find a party that I can stomach voting for... (that may be a lost cause. Depends how much the Greens have dropped their anti-science loony stuff since last time around. Maybe SNP if not.).
(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 09:22 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 09:58 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2014-11-25 10:36 am (UTC)(Note the Scottish Greens are a different party, and they don't seem to have their policies as clearly enumerated.)
(S)