kaberett: Trans symbol with Swiss Army knife tools at other positions around the central circle. (Default)
[personal profile] kaberett
I have been saying for some time that I really need to look at voting statistics for my borough in order to determine whether I need to vote for my (mostly competent, keeps trying to pick twitter fights with Julian Huppert) Labour MP Andrew Slaughter in order to avoid a Tory, or whether Andy's sufficiently safe that I can vote LD or Green instead depending on policies and candidates.

As it turns out, there isn't enough record to make a good call because the borough's only bloody existed since like 2010 (in its most recent incarnation; it previously existed 1885-1918 and 1983-1997, but I'm not poking at boundary maps hard enough to work out whether that's meaningful for my purposes). Anyway, it looks like Andy's sufficiently safe that I can vote according to my politics + desire for candidates without risking getting a bloody Conservative in; which means I will wait for Green & LD candidates to be announced and then make my mind up. (For all Andy annoys me he does mostly respond plausibly to letters and I approve of his interactions with the NHS, so.)

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-24 01:46 pm (UTC)
ex_we935: A photo of a dark-haired woman, with a sort of sepia, chiaroscuro effect applied to it. (Kerry - Chiaroscuro)
From: [personal profile] ex_we935
I wish it wasn't so difficult to have to decide between voting for a party that's less horrifying than the competition and voting for a party that actually suits your principles - I think this the reason why neo-liberal parties like New Labour, the US Democrats etc end up getting so many votes, even in areas where parties like the Greens would be more likely to match the voters' actual beliefs.

~K.

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-24 04:27 pm (UTC)
catyak: Baby Tesla (ZombieDog)
From: [personal profile] catyak
Sadly it has long been a case of voting for least-worst rather than best.

Last time out it was important to dump Labour who were turning us into a nanny state. Now it looks like the UK is becoming a police state (although the previous government weren't exactly blameless for that either) so it's necessary to work out who might stop that.

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 08:46 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] swaldman
I'm not sure that we can stop the creep of the police state by voting. We have an (arguable) choice between the party that says it believes in human rights, versus the party that says it believes in civil liberties[1]. Both appear to believe what they are told by the spooks.

[1] Actually, I'm not sure that's even true any more.

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-24 04:37 pm (UTC)
ext_51145: (Default)
From: [identity profile] andrewhickey.info
Yeah, this is why we need a decent preferential voting system, so then you could rank your preferences 1) Lib Dem, 2) Green, 3) Labour or whatever (that'd be my preference), and not have to worry.

In this case, I think Slaughter is safe. He had a substantial majority at the last election, the worst for Labour in many decades, and both the Tories and (especially) the Lib Dems are now much less popular. That looks like a very safe Labour seat to me...

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 08:47 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] swaldman
While I should not enjoy a broken electoral system delivering undemocratic results, I will nevertheless have quite a lot of Glee if the Tory vote should get hopelessly split with UKIP and cost them both seats, given how keen they were to retain the system that allows this to happen.

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 08:58 am (UTC)
ext_51145: (Default)
From: [identity profile] andrewhickey.info
Oh, absolutely.
What I *really* hope is that we get an (entirely possible) situation where the Tories come first in votes but second in seats, Labour second in votes but second in seats, UKIP third in votes but with no seats at all, the SNP fourth in votes and seats, and the Lib Dems fifth in votes and third in seats, and end up with a Lib-Lab coalition.
In a situation like that, where we get a completely *stupid* result, electoral reform might be a possibility again...

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 09:13 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] swaldman
I think you have confused yourself above :-P
(possibly you meant to say "Labour second in votes but first in seats"?

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 08:34 pm (UTC)
ext_51145: (Default)
From: [identity profile] andrewhickey.info
That's what I meant, yes. I was decaffeinated when typing...

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-24 02:51 pm (UTC)
naath: (Default)
From: [personal profile] naath
I presume Julian will be standing again, and as MP FOR SCIENCE I shall almost certainly be voting for him again.

I rather like the Greens really; except when they are trying to make CBG an exciting 4-way marginal. Oh for a sensible voting system to stop you having to decide between "OK, might win" and "brill, no chance".

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 10:30 am (UTC)
rmc28: Rachel in hockey gear on the frozen fen at Upware, near Cambridge (Default)
From: [personal profile] rmc28
Julian is definitely standing again :-)

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-24 05:47 pm (UTC)
stephdairy: (Default)
From: [personal profile] stephdairy
I think Hammersmith is more safely Labour than it was when paired with Fulham. I think it's still one of the Conservatives' target seats in London for 2015 though.

(S)

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-24 07:27 pm (UTC)
davidgillon: A pair of crutches, hanging from coat hooks, reflected in a mirror (Default)
From: [personal profile] davidgillon
It's a difficult issue, and least-worse is about the best face we can put on it.

I don't want to vote Labour, too much pandering to the Daily Mail vote and I just don't trust them, or Ed himself, on disability issues - they are, after all, the party who voluntarily got into bed with Unum and Atos to create the WCA (knowing exactly what was being said about Unum in the States), and they have pledged to keep it, if (allegedly) somewhat reformed.

Yet the current government has been a nightmare of ever-harsher attitudes towards disabled people, and people are dying regularly because of it - a friend has just suggested we need a Disability Day of Remembrance to focus attention on all those who have died because it is more convenient for society to look the other way. The Tories pledged to protect the most vulnerable, at the same time as explicitly targeting us for the worst of the cuts - one think-tank estimate says on average the most severely disabled people have faced cuts 19 times worse than non-disabled people. They even cut Access to Work, which actually made a 41% profit on every pound spent. The Tories are now floating the idea within DWP of cutting ESA (the benefit for disabled people who can't work)to 50p/wk more than JSA - £72/wk, about a £30/wk cut, for people with significantly higher living costs and mostly with no long term prospect of returning to the workforce. And the Lib Dems have happily held their coat while they did this, in stark counterpoint to everything they ever claimed to stand for, so there's no way I'm ever going to vote Lib Dem.

UKIP are worse, they seriously contemplated cutting all disability benefits to be equal to basic under-25 JSA (£57/wk), indeed their policies are so murky that may well still be their intention. Meanwhile their disability spokeswoman (who is at least disabled herself - not true in most parties) resigned from the Tories shortly ahead of her expulsion for campaigning that golliwogs aren't racist, and has told me on Twitter that Brussels was to blame for disability policies I know for a fact were decided on in Westminster deliberately to hamstring implementation of the actual EU policies. And on must stuff they're even worse!

There's an attraction to voting Green, but I only agree with limited parts of their policy base (as a defence professional I find their claim there is no viable threat to the UK ludicrous at best - which part of maritime nation don't they understand? - and they seem not to understand the time needed to rebuild lost capabilities in the face of resurgent threats). And there's little likelihood of them taking the local seat, so, regrettably, they're out unless I go for a pure protest vote.

What I need is a party that's economically and socially somewhere significantly to the left of Labour, while still retaining a defence and foreign policy I don't feel threatens the country - so essentially what I actually want is the Labour Party I grew up with, not the one we have now!

I'll almost certainly end up voting Labour, but not because of any actual desire to do so, purely because it's the choice that does the least harm.

And I do expect there to be harm :(

(ETA: I'm in Chatham and Aylesford, so with a Tory to unseat - Tracey Crouch had a 6,000 majority last time).
Edited (Add link plus note on constituency) Date: 2014-11-24 07:35 pm (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-24 07:35 pm (UTC)
vass: Warning sign of man in water with an octopus (Accidentally)
From: [personal profile] vass
I'm impressed at your research, and sad that you have to do that safety calculation. :(

I am SO FUCKING MAD at my country and its politics, but I really love our electoral system - both the compulsory voting and the preferential voting.

I'm going to go vote tomorrow (state election) and my calculations will take the form of who to vote first, who to vote next, who to vote last, and how to order the long tail of fundamentalist, libertarian, or white-supremacist parties just ahead of who to vote last.

(Sadfax: a lot of ordinary Australian voters - maybe even the majority - either do not understand how preferential voting works or don't know we have it. Civics: not a thing we do well.)

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 08:56 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] swaldman
I am in a similar position, with a similar lack of information for a different reason: This has historically been one of the safest LD seats in the country, but I don't know whether any LD seats are safe seats now.

*looks up stats* eeeeek.
Turns out that in the last election Labour, SNP and Tory were all within 60 votes of one another here, in joint second place with about 10% each, behind a 62% LD behemoth.
OK, this is probably still a safe seat...

In that case I can.... er, try to find a party that I can stomach voting for... (that may be a lost cause. Depends how much the Greens have dropped their anti-science loony stuff since last time around. Maybe SNP if not.).

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 09:22 am (UTC)
liv: ribbon diagram of a p53 monomer (p53)
From: [personal profile] liv
I think to some extent Greens have got less anti-science, and to some extent, well, I'd rather vote for a party that's anti-science than a party that's anti-human. Need to stop killing disabled people and stoking up racism, then we can worry about science funding. And that feels a strange thing to say, as a scientist myself, but honestly, if I'm out of a job because the Greens are luddite about genetic manipulation, I'll cope.

(no subject)

Date: 2014-11-25 10:36 am (UTC)
stephdairy: (Default)
From: [personal profile] stephdairy
One rather wonderful thing about the Greeen Party of England and Wales (and there aren't many if you're me) is that all their policies are itemised at http://policy.greenparty.org.uk/.

(Note the Scottish Greens are a different party, and they don't seem to have their policies as clearly enumerated.)

(S)

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